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The Tirzepatide Trial Library
Every number quoted on this site, traced to the study it came from — with the design, the population, the dose and the effect size.
Marketing pages quote '20% weight loss' without telling you it comes from the 15 mg arm of a 72-week trial in people without diabetes. This library gives you the source for every claim: what was measured, in whom, at what dose, against what comparator.
20 studies indexed, weighted toward tirzepatide, with the key semaglutide trials included for comparison.
Every trial, graded on the same rubric
An evidence grade here measures how much weight a result can carry, not whether the result was favourable. A large event-driven outcome trial outranks a small open-label comparison even when the smaller trial reports a more dramatic number. Every input is visible, so you can disagree with the weighting and recompute it.
| Trial | Design | Comparator | n | Endpoint | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SURPASS-CVOT | Double-blind | Active comparator | 13,299 | Clinical events | 95/100 High |
| Tirzepatide cardiovascular meta-analysis | Double-blind | Active comparator | 13,000 | Clinical events | 95/100 High |
| SELECT | Double-blind | Placebo | 17,604 | Clinical events | 85/100 High |
| SUMMIT | Double-blind | Placebo | 731 | Clinical events | 75/100 High |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Double-blind | Placebo | 2,539 | Surrogate | 70/100 Moderate |
| ATTAIN-1 | Double-blind | Placebo | 3,127 | Surrogate | 70/100 Moderate |
| STEP-1 | Double-blind | Placebo | 1,961 | Surrogate | 70/100 Moderate |
| SURPASS J-mono | Double-blind | Active comparator | 636 | Surrogate | 70/100 Moderate |
| Time to weight plateau (SURMOUNT-1 and -4 analysis) | Double-blind | Placebo | 2,539 | Surrogate | 70/100 Moderate |
| SURPASS-3 | Open-label | Active comparator | 1,444 | Surrogate | 65/100 Moderate |
| SURPASS-4 | Open-label | Active comparator | 2,002 | Surrogate | 65/100 Moderate |
| SURMOUNT-4 | Double-blind | Placebo | 670 | Surrogate | 60/100 Moderate |
| SURMOUNT-OSA | Double-blind | Placebo | 469 | Surrogate | 60/100 Moderate |
| SURMOUNT-3 | Double-blind | Placebo | 806 | Surrogate | 60/100 Moderate |
| SURMOUNT-2 | Double-blind | Placebo | 938 | Surrogate | 60/100 Moderate |
| SURMOUNT-5 | Open-label | Active comparator | 751 | Surrogate | 55/100 Moderate |
| STEP-8 | Open-label | Active comparator | 338 | Surrogate | 55/100 Moderate |
| SURPASS-2 | Open-label | Active comparator | 1,879 | Surrogate | 50/100 Limited |
| SURPASS-1 | Double-blind | Placebo | 478 | Surrogate | 45/100 Limited |
| GIP receptor pharmacology | — | — | — | Surrogate | 5/100 Low |
| Criterion | Points |
|---|---|
| Randomised allocation | 20 |
| Participants and investigators blinded | 15 |
| Active comparator rather than placebo | 10 |
| 1,000 or more participants | 10 |
| 52 weeks or longer | 15 |
| Clinical events rather than a surrogate endpoint | 15 |
| Prospectively registered | 10 |
| Funding independent of the manufacturer | 5 |
Two things this grade deliberately does not do
It does not reward a favourable result, and it does not penalise industry funding beyond a single five-point independence criterion. Almost every trial in this field is manufacturer-funded; treating that as disqualifying would leave nothing to read. What matters is that sponsorship is disclosed on every page, along with the sponsor's role in design, analysis and drafting.
It also cannot grade what was never published. Selective reporting is invisible to a rubric applied to published reports, which is why prospective registration carries points and why every trial here links to its own registry record.
Estimands, in one paragraph
Modern trials report the same result under more than one estimand — a precise statement of the question being answered. The treatment-regardless-of-adherence estimand (often called the treatment policy estimand) asks what happened to everyone randomised, including people who stopped the drug early or started another one. The efficacy estimand asks what would have happened if everyone had stayed on treatment as assigned. The efficacy estimand almost always produces a larger number, because it removes the people for whom the drug did not work well enough to keep taking. Marketing tends to quote the efficacy figure; a patient deciding whether to start should generally weigh the treatment-regardless figure, because it includes the possibility of being someone who stops.
SURMOUNT-1
Does tirzepatide cause weight loss in adults with obesity and without diabetes?
SURMOUNT-5
Head-to-head: tirzepatide vs semaglutide for weight loss in adults with obesity and without diabetes.
SURMOUNT-4
What happens if you stop tirzepatide after reaching a maintenance dose?
SURMOUNT-OSA
Does tirzepatide treat obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity?
SURPASS-2
Tirzepatide vs semaglutide 1 mg in type 2 diabetes.
SURPASS-CVOT
Cardiovascular outcomes with tirzepatide vs dulaglutide in type 2 diabetes with established ASCVD.
SUMMIT
Tirzepatide in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and obesity.
SURMOUNT-3
Does tirzepatide add further loss after a successful intensive lifestyle program?
SURMOUNT-2
Tirzepatide for obesity in adults who also have type 2 diabetes.
ATTAIN-1
Oral small-molecule GLP-1 (orforglipron) for weight management.
STEP-1
Semaglutide 2.4 mg for weight management without diabetes.
SELECT
Does semaglutide reduce cardiovascular events in people with obesity but without diabetes?
STEP-8
Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs liraglutide 3.0 mg.
GIP receptor pharmacology
Why does adding GIP agonism to GLP-1 agonism produce more weight loss?
SURPASS-1
Does tirzepatide alone control blood glucose in type 2 diabetes not already on medication?
SURPASS-3
How does tirzepatide compare with basal insulin added to metformin?
SURPASS-4
Is tirzepatide safe and effective in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk?
SURPASS J-mono
Does tirzepatide work the same way in a Japanese population?
Tirzepatide cardiovascular meta-analysis
Does tirzepatide increase cardiovascular risk across the trial programme?
Time to weight plateau (SURMOUNT-1 and -4 analysis)
When does weight loss on tirzepatide actually stop?
Primary sources
Clinical, dosing and regulatory statements on this page rest on the documents below. Links go to the publisher, not to a summary of it. Prices are not sourced here — they carry a verification date instead, and the reason is set out in the source ledger.
- ZEPBOUND (tirzepatide) full prescribing information — DailyMed, US National Library of Medicine. Dose ladder, contraindications, warnings, storage.
- FDA’s concerns with unapproved GLP-1 drugs used for weight loss — US Food and Drug Administration. Compounded GLP-1 risks, API import alert, cold-chain complaints.
- FD&C Act provisions that apply to human drug compounding — US Food and Drug Administration. Why a compounded preparation is lawful without being FDA-approved.
- Tirzepatide once weekly for the treatment of obesity (SURMOUNT-1) — N Engl J Med 2022;387:205-216. Registration NCT04184622. The weight-reduction and adverse-event figures used across this site.
- The full source ledger — every primary source, what it supports, the date we read it, and the claims we deliberately do not source.